中國有意討論匯率政策 2011年03月11日

法國總統薩科奇（Nicolas Sarkozy）拿自己整整一年的20國集團（G20﹐由20個發達和新興國家組成）輪值主席身份作賭注﹐用來說服中國在國際會議中討論其外匯政策。萬事開頭難﹐現在﹐中國似乎準備向他妥協了。

薩科奇宏偉目標的核心是﹐於本月底在中國古都南京市組織召開一次國際貨幣研討會。這次會議只是一步棋﹐法國更大的目標是推進20國集團商討如何接納一個多貨幣而非美國領導的貨幣體系﹐從而抑制匯率波動﹐避免對經濟增長造成阻礙。法國相信﹐這樣的討論將推動中國允許人民幣升值﹐而目前為止北京一直是反對升值的。

中國起初是抵制這次南京研討會的﹐一些官員表示﹐他們要的是一個更低調的會議﹐避免談及有關國際貨幣體系調整的話題。

美國認為﹐20國集團更廣泛的目標是致力於尋找衡量全球“再平衡”（即促使中國減少對出口型增長的依賴）進展的方式﹐南京研討會將注意力分散了。20國集團下一次討論再平衡主題的正式會議將在國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）4月召開會議後不久在華盛頓舉行。

然而﹐參加南京研討會的知名嘉賓名單有增無減。一些知情人士說﹐國際貨幣基金組織總裁斯特勞斯-卡恩（Dominique Strauss-Kahn）、德國財政部長朔伊布勒（Wolfang Schauble）、俄羅斯財政部長庫德林（Alexei Kudrin）、歐洲央行行長特里謝（Jean-Claude Trichet）和加拿大央行（Bank of Canada）行長卡尼（Mark Carney）等都會參加﹐會議將由法國財政部長拉嘉德（Christine Lagarde）主持。

一位知情人士說﹐西班牙財長薩爾加多（Elena Salgado）也計劃參加。美國財政部尚未決定派遣何種等級的代表。熟知該會議的人士說﹐中國方面﹐中國人民銀行行長周小川將與中國代表團一起參加。

一位參與研討會策劃的中國人士說﹐在政治層面上﹐中國國務院副總理、中共中央政治局委員、負責金融和經濟工作的王岐山可能會陪同薩科奇前往南京﹐薩科奇將在那裡召開研討會。會後﹐薩科奇還將前往北京﹐與中國國家主席胡錦濤展開雙邊對話。

研討會的一個組織者說﹐重要人物無一遺漏。他還說﹐大人物的現身並不一定會實現政策上的重大突破﹐但無疑會展示出對中國的誠意。

中國上個月對20國集團成員做出了重大讓步﹐在巴黎的會議上同意把匯率水平作為指標之一﹐用於評估成員國是否奉行妨礙全球增長的宏觀經濟政策。這對即將召開的研討會來說可能是個好兆頭。

儘管如此﹐南京研討會實際上可達成怎樣的成果仍懸而未決。中國央行貨幣政策委員會委員、中國政府智庫高級研究員夏斌說﹐我對於薩科奇主持召開的研討會不抱過高期望﹐沒有美國對國際金融體系變化的支持﹐是不會出現明顯改變的。

這個研討會上需密切注意的關鍵點﹐將是中國對於國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)特別提款權(SDR)在全球貨幣體系中的作用有何看法。法國認為﹐將人民幣納入特別提款權貨幣籃子可能會鼓勵人民幣更快速升值﹐而美國則強調﹐只有當中國放寬匯率政策﹐人民幣才可以被納入到這個貨幣籃子當中。中國央行副行長胡曉煉在上週巴黎的會議上談到這個問題時未作明確表態。

一位法國官員透露說﹐南京研討會議程上的其它項目將包括如何更好的監督資本流動和全球流動性 ﹐如何為應對系統性危機加強金融安全網﹐以及如何推動新興市場貨幣的國際化等。另外﹐斯特勞斯-卡恩可能還會介紹國際貨幣基金組織有關國際貨幣體系改革建議中期報告的梗概﹐這份報告將於今年4月提交給20國集團。

Nathalie Boschat / Bob Davis（道瓊斯）

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