王冠一:坐言起行 沽清美債

美國最大債商 PIMCO 投資總監格羅斯於其 3 月「投資展望報告」中透露，旗下資產規模達 2,369 億美元的總回報基金 (Total Return Fund)，已於上月底把持有的美國國債沽清。所指國債除了美債外，還包括相關產品如通脹掛鈎證券 (TIPS)、兩房發行債券、利率掉期、國債期貨及期權，以及由聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 擔保的企債等。

翻查紀錄，總回報基金於去年十月開始，便已不間斷減持美債。去年 11 月底時，美債所佔資產比重仍達 30%，12 月底已降至 22%，繼而於 1 月進一步減持至 12% 的兩年新低，最終在 2 月底清倉。美債十年指標孳息於 2 月 9 日曾經升至 3.77% 的 9 個半月新高，較年初急升達 40 基點，未知與總回報基金的減持行動是否有關。格羅斯盡沽美債，算是坐言起行，因為他早在去年 10 月聯儲局加推 6,000 億美元的次輪量化寬鬆計劃 (QE2) 時，已斷言債市長達 30 年的牛市已走向終點，更形容聯儲局買債的做法，屬不折不扣的「龐氏騙局」(Ponzi Scheme)。

格羅斯於金融融市場深具影響力。他是 PIMCO 的創辦人之一，投資往績亦昭著。旗下基金於過去 15 年的回報均名列前矛，過去 3 年平均回報 8.67%，便跑贏 93% 的投資級別同業。去年總回報基金回報率為 7.23%，亦較 85% 同業優勝，上月的回報率亦有 1.39%。投資往績穩定，自然有其獨到之處。格羅斯的高瞻遠矚亦令人拜服，他於 2002 年準確預測道指會跌穿 5,000 點，令其聲名鵲起；2007 年當孳息持續上升之際，格羅斯又預言住宅樓市泡沫將會導致美國陷入衰退，孳息亦會掉頭回落。他於上周再表示，QE2 若結束，聯儲局停止買債的話，十年孳息會高見 4% 水平。

過去 5 個月，市場對美國財赤惡化的憂慮不斷升溫，尤其總統奧巴馬於 12 月與共和黨達成全面減稅協議後，2011 年財年估計財赤將多達 16,450 億美元。聯儲局現時每月於市場吸納約 1,000 億美元國債，去年 11 月加推 6,000 億美元的 QE2 後至今，買債量已高達 4,120 億美元。估計 6 月底 QE2 結束時，購債量約為 8,000 億左右，所持國債數量亦會增至 1.6 萬億。

格羅斯提出的疑慮主要有三點：一旦聯儲局退出買債行列，由誰來接棒，債券需求又會否出現真空？屆時供應大增需求減，孳息要升至哪一水平，才能吸引投資者入市吸納？孳息若急升，舉債成本急增，美國經濟又如何去負擔？評級機構早已對美國負債和財赤水平提出警告，指不改善的話，美國可能會失去其 AAA 最高評級，若警告變成事實，美國便要付出更高利息去舉債。

格羅斯的總回報基金把美債清倉後，所持現金或套現期低於1年的「流動現金」，於 2 月底時高達 545 億美元，較 1 月底的 119 億增加逾4倍，佔投資合比重擴大至 23%。其他資產仍以抵押貸款所佔 34%比重最高，投資級別信貸佔 18%、新興市場債券佔 10%、高收益信貸佔 6%，，其他成熟市場債券及市政債券分佔 5% 和 4%。總回報基金於 12 月時曾表示，會增持股票相關證券如可換股證券及優先股至投資組合的10%，又是否反映其棄債投股的傾向？

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